the business of vinyl according to Kozik
:: TOYS / BUSINESS ::
in response to a KR-forum-post lamblasting the current drop of value and quality of KAWS' toys, with the main question: "does KAWS owe anything to the collectors?" = this is Frank Kozik's response:
(entry one)
- you're going to see a large amount of media coverage in the 'smaller hip
media' over the next 6-12 months, as well as a few books and at least 2 indepenedent documentaries.
- then in 12-24 moths some mainstream media coverage as they catch up.
- the books will spike the 'collector value' of the better 'early' (earlier) pieces, and the media coverage will boost sales of the inexpensive toys.
- sales will continue to rise in volume for 36 months, then level off and or drop to a stable plateau somewhat greater than it is now.
- you will see alot of new releases, but they have an upper limit due to manufacturing capabilities.
- you will see more stuff like Chub City where the 'style' gets done for mainstream.
- after 36 months there will be a percieved 'drop' in interest, but it will just be the spotlight moving on and the makers and retailers that survive will have a permanent niche market.
- in the long run, it will be the original lines and characters that have impact surviving (KAWS etc) and a lot of 1-shot wonders will have dissapeared.
- this has been the 'rule' in all areas of collecting and pop detritus for like 50 years.
- if your buying solely to accrue 'increased value' then you need to pick very selectively as only a small percentage will retain, and that is going to be linked to the level of percieved value of the original artist or company.
- if say, (Joe) Ledbetter never makes another toy and sort of drops off into obscurity as an artist for some reason his toys won't retain any value ... but if he becomes very visible with an evolving career and big art shows etc - then his toys will keep their value.
- 'platforms' will evolve into a 'normal' novelty item/toy and will be around forever.
- a model for that - Bearbricks - medicom has sold over 10 million bearbricks since 2000 ... and they are still going strong and are now a 'normal' product that still has collectors.
- the job as i see it for the creators is to keep doing new stuff.
(entry two)
- aftermarket prices are not the responsbility of the makers.
- i think its odd that you expect ME (Kozik) to limit my business model so that YOU can make a 200 or 300% profit from the purchase of one of my toys.
- by that reasoning I should quadruple prices and then sell less items for higher profit.
- what i do is a formula based on wholesale returns. the aftermarket is an unknown entity that doesn't enter into any of my plans.
- if you want 'assured' returns; that's what capital invesment plans are for. IRAS. roths, pension funds etc.
- i make 'novelty art/consumer items' made for pleasure, i dont make investment portfolios.
- anyways the cycle is usually:
01. high resale value
02. dip in interest...time passes...
03. resale values rise, but plateau lower than initial resale frenzy.
- 1 in 100 pieces will achieve and retain extremely high resale value.
(all text posted above were "lifted" via KR-forum, as written by Frank Kozik and slightly edited by myself, ie: grammar etc) = an enlightening read indeed! :)
._.
in response to a KR-forum-post lamblasting the current drop of value and quality of KAWS' toys, with the main question: "does KAWS owe anything to the collectors?" = this is Frank Kozik's response:
(entry one)
- you're going to see a large amount of media coverage in the 'smaller hip
media' over the next 6-12 months, as well as a few books and at least 2 indepenedent documentaries.
- then in 12-24 moths some mainstream media coverage as they catch up.
- the books will spike the 'collector value' of the better 'early' (earlier) pieces, and the media coverage will boost sales of the inexpensive toys.
- sales will continue to rise in volume for 36 months, then level off and or drop to a stable plateau somewhat greater than it is now.
- you will see alot of new releases, but they have an upper limit due to manufacturing capabilities.
- you will see more stuff like Chub City where the 'style' gets done for mainstream.
- after 36 months there will be a percieved 'drop' in interest, but it will just be the spotlight moving on and the makers and retailers that survive will have a permanent niche market.
- in the long run, it will be the original lines and characters that have impact surviving (KAWS etc) and a lot of 1-shot wonders will have dissapeared.
- this has been the 'rule' in all areas of collecting and pop detritus for like 50 years.
- if your buying solely to accrue 'increased value' then you need to pick very selectively as only a small percentage will retain, and that is going to be linked to the level of percieved value of the original artist or company.
- if say, (Joe) Ledbetter never makes another toy and sort of drops off into obscurity as an artist for some reason his toys won't retain any value ... but if he becomes very visible with an evolving career and big art shows etc - then his toys will keep their value.
- 'platforms' will evolve into a 'normal' novelty item/toy and will be around forever.
- a model for that - Bearbricks - medicom has sold over 10 million bearbricks since 2000 ... and they are still going strong and are now a 'normal' product that still has collectors.
- the job as i see it for the creators is to keep doing new stuff.
(entry two)
- aftermarket prices are not the responsbility of the makers.
- i think its odd that you expect ME (Kozik) to limit my business model so that YOU can make a 200 or 300% profit from the purchase of one of my toys.
- by that reasoning I should quadruple prices and then sell less items for higher profit.
- what i do is a formula based on wholesale returns. the aftermarket is an unknown entity that doesn't enter into any of my plans.
- if you want 'assured' returns; that's what capital invesment plans are for. IRAS. roths, pension funds etc.
- i make 'novelty art/consumer items' made for pleasure, i dont make investment portfolios.
- anyways the cycle is usually:
01. high resale value
02. dip in interest...time passes...
03. resale values rise, but plateau lower than initial resale frenzy.
- 1 in 100 pieces will achieve and retain extremely high resale value.
(all text posted above were "lifted" via KR-forum, as written by Frank Kozik and slightly edited by myself, ie: grammar etc) = an enlightening read indeed! :)
._.
